I already advised a conference on Game Theory. Here is something else, as sharp towards think tanks as the other one.

Excellent article via phnk on econoclaste blog about
the most important event of the XXth century :
"the one that did not happen"
(ie a nuclear war, despite Hiroshima and Nagasaki).

It was developped in Thomas C. Schelling's Nobel Prize Lecture : An Astonishing Sixty Years [viewable online, real video format]

« IRANIAN USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPON ON ISRAEL WOULD BE 'SUICIDE BOMB' » Interview by Thomas C. Schelling
(more perceptive than econoclaste's note, imho)